Sourced fact
The News
Fierce clashes have erupted between government forces in Ethiopia and a coalition of armed opposition groups in the north, leading to explosions in the capital, Addis Ababa. According to Reuters, explosions were heard in Addis Ababa on Thursday night following the government's announcement of a no-fly zone for drones in the capital and its outskirts. According to a source close to the Amhara People's Liberation Movement coalition, armed groups carried out several drone strikes targeting military bases.
The coalition includes seven armed groups, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front and groups from Eritrea, Amhara, Oromo, Somali, and Benishangul-Gumuz. The coalition aims to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it would close its embassy in Asmara in response to what it described as Eritrean diplomatic activities threatening its national security. Ethiopia gave Eritrea 48 hours for its diplomats in Addis Ababa to leave the country.
The spokesperson for the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Eritrea had conducted "direct and indirect hostile acts against Ethiopia," leading to the expulsion of diplomats. Ethiopia urged Eritrea to "halt all activities that run counter to the principles governing relations between sovereign states." Reuters reported that government forces had advanced northward and reached a distance of approximately 40 kilometers from Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. Reports indicated that Tigray forces had withdrawn to new positions, while some of their leaders had left the city.
In the Oromia region, reports of clashes between government forces and armed groups were also noted. Reuters reported that government forces had retaken the towns of Irbessa and Abua near the border with Tigray. Efforts for local mediation to convince the forces to withdraw have failed, threatening the lives of more than 80,000 local residents. Ahmed Hussein, the deputy governor of Oromia, expressed concern that the unprecedented attack aims to destabilize the region and install pro-Eritrean figures.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
Analytically, the conflict in Ethiopia represents a dangerous development in the Horn of Africa. The ongoing fighting between Ethiopian government forces and the opposition coalition threatens regional stability and jeopardizes trade and shipping routes.
In a broader context, Ethiopia faces increasing internal and external challenges. Accusations of Eritrean involvement in the conflict exacerbate tensions between the two countries, increasing the likelihood of a wider conflict in the region.
The conflict in Tigray and Oromia also threatens regional food security. If fighting continues and affects transport routes between Ethiopia and Djibouti, it could restrict the movement of food and goods, exacerbating the suffering of local populations.
