Sourced fact
The News
Diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been severed after Ethiopia announced it would close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats. This led to a reciprocal reaction from Eritrea, which ended all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia. According to a statement from the Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this move is "shocking" and will have negative consequences. These developments come amid escalating fighting in northern Ethiopia, where sources close to the government report that government-aligned forces have recaptured the nearby city of Mekelle. However, these claims have not been independently verified by the media.
Tensions between the two countries have escalated significantly since the end of the war in Tigray in 2022. At that time, there was a significant improvement in relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed restoring relations between the two countries after two decades of hostility, earning him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. However, relations deteriorated again due to tensions over Eritrea's involvement in the ongoing conflict in Tigray.
In a related development, Ethiopia also announced that it had expelled an Egyptian diplomat, leading to a similar reaction from Egypt, which sent an Ethiopian diplomat back within 48 hours. This tension between the two countries primarily stems from the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. Egypt, heavily dependent on the Nile's water resources, has long expressed concerns about the dam's potential impact on its water share. The recent expulsions of diplomats have further exacerbated tensions between the two nations.
Simultaneously, Ethiopian federal forces are engaged in intense battles with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and its allies in Tigray, Afar, and northern Amhara. Federal forces and their allies appear to be making progress in southern Tigray and are advancing towards Mekelle. According to local doctors, at least 52 civilians died in three days of intense fighting in the Almatown area. The TPLF has stated that its forces are responding to federal forces' offensives and drone strikes.
The African Union has called on Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to resolve their differences through diplomatic channels and avoid further destabilizing the region. The United Nations has warned that the deteriorating security situation severely disrupts humanitarian efforts in northern Ethiopia. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric stated that drone activities and airstrikes pose a threat to civilians, critical infrastructure, and aid operations, while security issues and road closures limit the free passage of humanitarian assistance. The UN is calling on all parties to ensure that those in need can safely and freely access aid.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
From an analytical perspective, the severing of diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea reflects a significant deterioration in regional relations. This tension stems from the conflict in Tigray, where the Ethiopian government faces a coalition of rebels, including factions from Eritrea. This tension threatens to destabilize the region and hinder humanitarian efforts.
In a broader context, Ethiopia and Eritrea play a pivotal role in the region, where their relations impact regional security and the economy. Since 2018, relations between the two countries have seen significant improvements when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed restored ties with Eritrea, earning him the Nobel Peace Prize. However, tensions have resurfaced due to the Tigray conflict and other issues such as control of Red Sea ports.
Civilians in Tigray face significant challenges due to the ongoing fighting, raising concerns about the worsening humanitarian crisis in the region. The international community is calling for easing tensions and resolving disputes through diplomatic channels to prevent further deterioration of the situation.
