Sourced fact
The News
US midterm election opinion polls show the Democratic Party leading Republicans by a significant margin, raising questions about the potential impact of this possible victory on the political and security landscape in Europe. While analysts from Al Jazeera confirm that this shift will not radically change transatlantic relations, it could carry negative risks related to European complacency toward far-right movements and President Donald Trump pressuring Ukraine into an undesirable agreement with Russia.
Catherine Fieschi, a non-resident fellow at Carnegie Europe specializing in far-right politics, stated that a Democratic win in the House of Representatives or both chambers would be interpreted as a return to democracy, potentially reducing European fears of Marine LePen's victory in France. Fieschi added that this victory would lead to serious discussions about the threat posed by LePen, who is currently leading French opinion polls with 34% of the vote; some may view the elections as correcting the course if current leadership is deemed incompetent.
On his part, Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris warned against over-attributing European public opinion shifts to US policy, noting that Europe's stance on migration has evolved independently of American politics. He explained that the US played a role in accelerating this shift by changing the tone from integration to deterrence and closed borders, arguing that these changes influenced policies in countries like Germany, which moved from an asylum-reception model to strict control measures.
Fieschi further noted that LePen's potential victory could push France toward controversial proposals including reducing financial contributions to the European Union, cutting military aid to Ukraine, and possibly exiting the euro. She pointed out that any of these steps would be a major blow to the European project, while Trump might exploit his position with Putin to impose an agreement sacrificing southeastern Ukraine—a move Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described as a strategic error that reignites the war.
Fieschi also mentioned that Trump has already used early warning systems and satellites to Russia's advantage against Ukraine, while European public opinion has turned against the US, with only 31% considering America a reliable ally. She added that 73% of Europeans support Europe following its own path away from close cooperation with Washington, reflecting a deep shift in European public opinion that is difficult to reverse quickly, especially amid the ongoing Russian war.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
Analytically, US trust in Europe has eroded significantly since Donald Trump resumed his presidency for a second term. According to Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation, the percentage of Europeans who consider the US "most reliable ally" dropped from 51% in 2024 to 31% currently. This decline reflects a fundamental shift in Europe's view of its traditional Western ally.
In a broader context, European polls indicate that large portions of the population—including centrists and right-wing voters—prefer Europe to "go its own way" rather than maintain close cooperation with the US. Additionally, 68% of Europeans want to increase the EU's role in protecting its citizens from global crises and security threats, signaling a growing desire for strategic autonomy.
The Ukraine issue remains a critical turning point in European-US international relations. Any US decision to reduce military aid or alter war strategy could fundamentally alter Europe's security equation. Furthermore, the continuation of the Russian war and its impact on European airspace makes any retreat in US support extremely dangerous.
Finally, internal political trends in Europe are shifting toward far-right movements in several countries, which could intensify if European governments perceive the US as an unreliable ally or a collaborator with Russia. This internal shift adds another layer of complexity to today's global geopolitical landscape.
