Sourced fact
The News
Recently, Saudi authorities announced precautionary measures to protect students from attacks by Yemen's Houthi militias before allowing them to return to school. These developments indicate that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continue to impact daily life in the kingdom. According to Marcus Schneider, Director of the Regional Peace and Security Program at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, the escalation of Houthi attacks is pushing Saudi Arabia towards more regional conflict, which it has sought to avoid.
Since July, there has been a rise in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with numerous missiles and drones crossing the border. This escalation threatens Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" initiative, which aims to shift the kingdom away from oil dependency. The Houthi attacks have also disrupted the East-West oil pipeline stretching over 1200 kilometers, impacting oil flow through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Andrew Liepere, a researcher at the Middle East Program of the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, notes that attacks on pipelines and the occupation of coastal areas in the Red Sea constitute a double blow to Saudi Arabia. These attacks make it difficult for Saudi Arabia to rely on alternative oil transport routes like the Strait of Hormuz, which faces challenges due to the US-Iran conflict.
The United States, a Saudi ally, does not appear ready to provide direct military support against the Houthis. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the US military faces challenges in supplying Patriot missiles and interceptors needed to counter Houthi attacks. This makes it unlikely that the US will engage in a wide-scale military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen.
At present, military solutions do not seem effective. As Carnegie has pointed out, Saudi Arabia needs a comprehensive ground campaign to expel the Houthis from the areas they have occupied around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. However, Saudi Arabia appears unprepared for a large-scale ground war, especially after the coalition it leads failed to achieve a decisive victory against the Houthis between 2015 and 2022.
In turn, Europe has announced initiatives to protect maritime security in the Red Sea, such as the Aegis Shield operation which began in 2022.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
Analytically, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia pose a significant threat to regional and global security. Saudi Arabia's economy, which relies on oil exports, is now at risk due to attacks on oil infrastructure. Attacks on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait also threaten maritime trade, increasing tensions in the region.
In a broader context, the world struggles to provide military assistance to Saudi Arabia. The United States, despite providing intelligence support, seems unprepared for direct military engagement against the Houthis due to tensions with Iran. While Europe offers some military support, it is not prepared for a long-term war in Yemen.
It is also important to consider diplomacy as a potential option. Abdulghani Al-Iryani from the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies suggests that the Houthis have an interest in relations with Saudi Arabia, as Yemen relies economically on Saudi Arabia for humanitarian aid and job markets. Therefore, a diplomatic solution may be the most effective way to ease tensions in the region.
