Sourced fact
The News
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz have led to a sharp rise in global fertilizer prices, driving up the prices of corn and soybeans. According to data from the Anadolu Agency, the price of diammonium phosphate, a key type of fertilizer, increased by 28.4% in the first nine months of 2026 to reach $802.5 per ton. This rise from $625 per ton at the end of 2025 significantly impacted corn prices, which rose by 13.3%, and soybeans, which rose by 22.6%.
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has restricted access to agricultural inputs, with around one-third of global fertilizer trade passing through this strait under normal conditions. This disruption has increased fuel prices, raising the costs of agricultural production. According to Kütay Güzgör, the head of strategic research at Kuwait Turq Bank, these logistical disruptions have heavily impacted the prices of phosphate fertilizers, as a significant portion of production inputs such as sulfur and ammonia pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Güzgör stated that these logistical challenges could lead to an expected decline in agricultural production in the upcoming 2026-2027 growing season, as farmers are forced to reduce fertilizer usage due to its increased costs. Additionally, Güzgör noted that the high cost of fertilizers will increase production costs and contribute to pressure on farmers' profit margins, potentially driving them to change farming patterns or use less expensive types of fertilizers, which may result in lower production in the future.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
From an analytical perspective, the Strait of Hormuz is a vital point in global supply chains, with around one-third of global fertilizer supplies passing through it. Geopolitical tensions in the region have led to significant fluctuations in fertilizer and agricultural commodity prices.
In a broader context, agricultural production relies on the availability of affordable fertilizers, and supply disruptions can lead to reduced agricultural output and higher prices. This impact can be long-lasting, as farmers may have to alter their farming patterns to avoid expensive fertilizers.
It is also worth noting that logistical challenges in the Strait of Hormuz have affected the ability of countries to import fertilizers from alternative suppliers, leading to increased shipping costs and overall price hikes.
